Transportation

Will We Build Cities for Humans or Machines?

After decades of cities built for machines, will we return to cities built for humans? A changing climate and advancing technologies open doors to reimagine the future of transportation.

“When we create convenient, affordable mobility options, then the car becomes a choice instead of a requirement.”

– Kai Monast, Will We Build Cities for Humans or Machines?

Future Scenario: The End of the Personal Car as We Know It

By the year 2040, human-centered city design and reliable, affordable and accessible micromobility options and shared car subscriptions will make owning a private car obsolete. This will be true in urban and rural environments. As a result, society will be more equitable, more time and space will be available for improved wellbeing, streets will be safe enough for a child to traverse alone and repurposed parking lots will foster biodiversity and combat extreme weather conditions brought on by climate change.

Future Scenario: What will life be like when no one needs a car?

It’s May, 2040, and it’s already hot out, but so lovely after yesterday’s torrential rain. You’ll walk to work today. No one’s had a personal car since the 2030s, and you don’t understand how anyone ever did. It’s so nice to choose to have access to a car rather than be required to have one or miss out. Things are more fair for everyone. And whether you want to be fancy or bare bones, subscriptions offer so much variety and flexibility – and now there’s the public plan. No one needs a car that often anyway: Cities are much more walkable now, much safer. Even in the suburbs or the country, it just doesn’t make sense for most people to need a car. 

Yes, I’ll walk today, you decide smiling up at the sunshine through the window. But your smile fades when you open the fridge: You’re out of creamer. “Remember to go by Lenny’s Market for half-and-half” you say out loud, and your phone creates a reminder to stop by the corner grocery on your way home. 

Oh well. On the way to work, you can stop by that new coffee shop next to the hardware store – and oh! The marshes should be filled today, so you can look for toads in the reeds for a few minutes before heading into the office. You still can’t believe that park was a parking lot just two decades ago. It looks so wild. 

The kids clamber down the stairs and beeline to the door. They’re racing to their blue and yellow school-issued cycles again, which are parked along the sidewalk at the end of the block. 

“Slow down. There are still plenty of bikes left,” you remind them. “My app says five regular and four electric. And yea, yea, I know,” you say, handing them their helmets, “cars don’t hit people. But you can still bang your head on the sidewalk. Then you’ll have to wait for the emergency drone, and even as fast as they are, you’ll still be late, won’t you?” You kiss them on the head and send them on their way. 

Through the window you see your neighbor Dee seated in her wheelchair in the cooling station wearing a raincoat. You throw your water bottle into your bag and head out the door. Dee, who is going to a doctor’s appointment, catches you as you walk by. She says she had wanted to wheel there, since it’s just a mile and a half away and so nice out today. But her wheels are squeaking and the chair needs a tuneup so she’s called a car. After the doctor, she tells you, she’ll stop by the shop next door and see if they can fix the chair quickly. Then, she hopes she can just wheel home. She brought her coat just in case it rains later, but it’s already so hot, she doesn’t know why she doesn’t just take it off, she says, looking down at her phone. “Ah, here it is. Just two minutes and an empty station! What a nice day!” 

Across the sidewalk in the car lane, a ramp lowers from the public driverless rideshare. Dee rolls along the crosswalk and up the ramp which closes behind her. On a day like today, she’ll get it all to herself, you think. 

You check the weather app, sunshine for the whole week. “Pause car subscription for one week,” you say out loud. “Ok,” your phone replies. “Would you like to donate those hours instead?” 

“Good idea. Yes, go ahead,” you say as you walk down the street.

Future Scenario: Traffic in the Sky 2040

Within 20 years, humans are managing a vast number of low-flying aircraft populating our skies. Drones are delivering consumer goods and medical devices or services during emergencies. They’re employed to help with the increasing number of natural disasters, like floods and forest fires. Besides drones, there’s flying cars. Three-to-eight-seater aircrafts take off and land from infrastructure built atop tall buildings and rivers. They shuttle people between neighborhoods, cities or regions. These electric vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) aircraft are prohibitively expensive. Private or for-hire vehicles serve only some, and representatives see a public option as financially impossible. Meanwhile, humans are exploring ways to manage all this air traffic. Systems vary by jurisdiction. Some places create “highways in the sky” to shepherd aircraft along lanes – like cars on highways. Other places employ a lot of air traffic controllers. And with the file-and-fly system, filed routes lock up airspace for a certain amount of time. No matter what type of traffic management system an airspace employs, all flights yield to emergency vehicles.

Future Scenario: A vote for air traffic management – what will you decide?

September, 2041, Raleigh, NC. – Today is Wednesday – and the fourth day of the fifth heat wave this season. Lucky for you, it’s also a company-wide wellness day. You peer out the window, sipping your coffee. It’s too sunny to stay inside and waste AC, you think. The lake will be boiling, probably teeming with killer microbes, brain eating amoebas. The sand at the beach? Total flip flop melter. You’ll escape to the mountains, you and your two best friends. You’re looking forward to a hike and cooler air. 

You check your transport app to see if any air taxis are available. A three-seater eVTOL has just opened up. You reserve it immediately. The flight takes off at 9 AM so you’ll have to book it to make it there by 8:45. It’s a bit pricey, but you all agree to split the fee. At least for today, you think, it’s worth it. You love the “TarheelXP,” North Carolina’s electric high-speed rail line that runs along the old interstate routes east to west. High-speed rail is about twice as fast as air taxi, but the train will probably be packed this early. Plus, there’s a vertiport in the mountains right on top of the French Broad River. It’s close to food, shops and all the trails. Also, this could be your last time in an air taxi. 

After the Urban Air Mobility vote in November, who knows what will happen with air traffic management. You like the SkyHighway in use now, but there’s just too much traffic with all the delivery and emergency drones up there too. Maybe we’ll replace it with a File-and-fly system. Will having to lock in flights earlier raise ride prices and cancellation fees? Or maybe we’ll go the other way, hire a bunch of air traffic controllers. Surely we’ll have enough workers. It seems like ever since the DOT announced an air traffic tuition rebate, everyone’s studying it these days. There’s also a possibility that whatever we choose won’t matter. There’s growing concern about equity: It may be impossible to ever make eVTOLs affordable for everyone. You squint your eyes a little ashamed at today’s decision. Is it really fair to subject everyone to someone’s luxury? You start to feel a little guilty about your decision but you throw your bottle, a towel, swimsuit, extra socks and some snacks into your bag and head out the door. 

Outside the air above you vibrates and buzzes. It’s so hot already, but the walk to the heliport isn’t too far. It still looks silly, that super tall building in the middle of town. But hey, it took a lot to get it there, so it is what it is. At least it houses a bunch of people. You pass the park, where a crowd of people has gathered around an older man passed out in the grass. “I called 911 about two minutes ago,” someone says, calming the crowd. “I’ve got training, so I can work the defibrillator.” At that very moment, a drone drops down into the mass of people. The buzzing and beeping seems to make you walk faster and before you know it, you’re boarding your flight. 

Thirty minutes into the flight the automatic pilot announces that it is rerouting. A swarm of drones has been dispersed to put out a forest fire just east of your destination. You lean back your head, let out a sigh and wait.  Soon enough you’ll be out of the air and under a waterfall.

“We will have a vastly larger number of aircraft in the sky. They will be flying lower than what we’re typically used to in a greater quantity. And they will have to be managed by something.”

– Adam Terando, Evan Arnold, and Kai Monast, Will We Build Cities for Humans or Machines?