Future Scenarios

Future Scenarios

It can be hard to imagine the future. To get you started, here are some scenarios based on future trends gleaned from the Long View Interviews. Picture lifelong AI-powered tutors, the end of personal cars, societies unconstrained by energy and more. Are these dreams you hope to manifest? Are they nightmares you wish to avoid? We challenge you to use these scenarios to think about how we can push forward, protect against or even reframe our world, decades or even centuries from now. We hope they ignite your imagination, spark conversation and encourage collaborations so we can start preparing for the future now. 

Check out the source interviews and challenge your imagination with our narrative prompts at the end of each scenario.

Let us know what you think! We’re still experimenting with scenario creation, and we’d love to hear how you used our scenarios or crafted your own. Send your feedback or questions to longviewproject@ncsu.edu.

Dark Skies

Smart Lights, Starry Nights

Over just a few decades between 2025 and 2050, nearly every county, town or city around the world adopts local ordinances promoting smart lighting design and curfew lighting. 

Appreciation of the night sky begins to grow. 

The League of Earthlings for Starry Skies drafts the Night Sky Constitution, a global document establishing viewing the night sky as a natural right and outlining rules and regulations for night sky preservation. Among its regulations is a cap on annual satellite launches and a recuperation requirement, prohibiting any public body, private company or individual from launching a satellite into orbit without first retrofitting or bringing an old one back. By 2040, the constitution is ratified, with every major country signing on to become a member of The Stellar Skies Alliance. 

Meanwhile, culture is transforming. People begin to embrace the night as a source of peace rather than a vessel for danger. People habitually stop what they’re doing and head outside during curfew to gaze up at the night sky. A little travel makes it easy to sample the burgeoning night culture in neighboring towns or distant cities. Each seems to have its own personality.

Cathedrals and temples begin appearing around the world, from small villages to megacities. Beneath these glass domes or columns of roofless space, people gather to reflect, share stories, discuss difficult topics, picnic or simply sit below the sky and do nothing. 

As the century unfolds, the offerings of the night sky take on more importance. Each summer between June and August, when the Milky Way is most visible or the Perseids Meteor Shower arrives in the Northern Hemisphere, the Stargaze Festival brings people together around a week of special events. It begins with a huge feast and the release of the annual Dark Sky, Healthy Planet Report, published by hundreds of experts from around the world. Along with the latest astronomical discoveries, the DSHP tracks the quality of the night sky and the health of people, other animals and plants. The week of festivities culminates in a parade. 

As a result of night sky preservation, Earth’s inhabitants are healthier. With less artificial light to disrupt circadian rhythms – which are important for r sleep, growth, migration, healing and more – populations are reporting lower rates of obesity, diabetes, heart disease and some cancers. People are more considerate of their place in the universe. They waste less and do more with what they have. They’re inspired and curious, yet they feel grounded. Depression rates drop. Stress decreases because taking contemplative breaks has been normalized and accepted as a critical part of life and culture. 

Journey deeper into the future of the night sky:

• Saving Earth’s Starry Cathedral

“It’s a connection that every single person could have. We each could see the Milky Way from where we live. And it’s a connection to our origins. It’s a grand sense of belonging.”

– Lindsay DeMarchi, Saving Earth’s Starry Cathedral

Wastewater

A New Water Culture

During the 2020s and 2030s an increase in the severity and number of droughts and floods across the US put pressure on society to rethink how it had seen water for the past century. Organically over twenty years, a new culture of water conservation emerged. Better technology, improved manufacturing and effective marketing made greywater systems and advanced and urine-diverting toilets appealing and affordable to all Americans. Early adoption in public buildings, businesses and homes, was incentivized in the first few years with Waste to Resource Certification and tax breaks. As people adopted greywater systems and toilets and learned more about them through marketing, social media and entertainment, the stigma of waste disappeared, replaced by an appreciation for re-use and a circular economy.  

Water Reuse 

First Hurricane Helene in 2024, then the droughts of the 2030s: The demand for more reliable water systems, especially as infrastructure continued aging, put a lot of pressure on the US to rethink how it had seen water for more than a century. By the year 2050, a new culture had emerged around water, as people began learning about just how much water affects their daily life, their long-term health and the health of the environment. People became acutely aware of water: how much we use individually and together, how clean water is essential and how inequities in access to water services affect society as a whole. It started to click that water exists in a complex web – changes in one part influence the whole system. 

The change started small, with public buildings such as schools installing greywater systems in return for federal Waste to Resources (W2R) certification and tax breaks. Early adoption of greywater systems in single-family homes and multi-family buildings came next, encouraged by extending those incentives and by lower costs, especially in water-scarce areas. For businesses, it was not only good PR but also good for lowering costs. Now it’s hard to find a place without a greywater system.

People still get water from wells or municipal systems, but it’s only about 15 percent of what they use, mostly for drinking and cooking. The rest is recycled – treated, depending on its type and use – in refrigerator-sized units onsite, in basements and utility closets. Water used in tubs, washing machines and sinks is reused to flush toilets, wash clothes and water lawns and vegetable gardens. In some places – where water is scarce and houses aren’t connected to a centralized system – people even drink this used water. But only after sensors tell them that the advanced filtration and disinfection technologies in their water units did their job making  contaminated water safe. It’s called direct-potable-reuse. This converting wastewater to drinking water is done mostly in centralized systems, like municipal wastewater and drinking water treatment plants, not at individual homes.

Toilet Mania. 

Advances in technology, clever marketing and smart design have delivered next-generation toilets to nearly every bathroom in the United States. Now in the 2050s, urine and poop are fertilizer, as they were 150 years ago. Once a few companies started marketing these recycling toilets, demand and mass production followed. The toilets come in different colors and designs, with a range of features from simple to state-of-the-art. Like Toms or Bombas in the 2010s and 2020s, one company promotes BOGO deals. Buy one toilet, and another is donated. 

In 2032 another months-long drought was wrecking the entire country. But we made it through – thanks in part, to a toilet ad. The “Now That’s a Superbowl” commercial, a collaboration between American Komodes and the US Office of Water and Conservation, convinced hundreds of millions of football fans that the Wadda Waste Toilet would save water, money – and at just the last minute, maybe the losing team. (It did, it did, it didn’t). Toilet mania had officially begun. 

It had happened before. In the 1890s and early 1900s Americans rushed to commandeer the latest toilet models that could best protect them from germs, which had just been discovered to cause illness. About a century later, Japan adopted the bidet after learning it was cleaner to wash than wipe from brilliant marketing of the Toto Washlet. 

In the Communication Age, toilet mania rocketed to a whole new level. Some people paid lots of money for the most exclusive new models to impress house guests or attract visitors to their buildings. Influencers shared toilets on social media. Commercials featured male celebrities peeing sitting down. In New York City clean, public restrooms were once hard to find. But you can still judge a restaurant by its bathroom. Toilet Tours popped up, and entrepreneurs cashed in on the curiosity of tourists and locals alike. Home design programs featured greywater remodels. Documentaries followed sanitation workers. Reality shows pitted engineers, chemists, sanitation specialists and average Joes against each other in competitions for the best-tasting water or best fertilizer. It did a lot to reduce the stigma of “waste.” 

Now the hype has died down, and a toilet is just a toilet. You can purchase a urine diverting and advanced toilet for no more than an average toilet would have cost in the 2020s. They’re standard in new building projects.

Working in sanitation is a well-paid position of honor. Kids practice sanitation duty in school. Most homeowners manage their own water reuse and resource recovery systems, but wealthier ones hire personal sanitation managers. In large building complexes, some of these managers make as much as doctors. Their expertise varies from cleaning and removal to chemical and microbial analysis, treatment strategy, water reuse planning, and sensor technology and data analysis. Lately smart monitoring systems are gaining popularity, but they’re getting some pushback from the sanitation worker unions. 

Supporters of these AI-powered systems tout them as a game changer for safety and proper water reuse. Sensors track and manage chemicals, microbes and more goings-on inside your toilet, pipes and water treatment unit, so they’re practically self-cleaning. Plus, they’re programmable. You can customize the system for whatever reuse makes most sense for your home. If anything goes wrong, an AI-powered W2R assistant tells you step-by-step what to do to treat your water. You can also see just what’s going on, if you want, in any form you want – numbers, charts, graphs, pictures, stories – or simply let the assistant work its magic. 

Healthier Society.

Smart toilets are now able to monitor your health by sampling your urine and stool. Bio- and chemical analysis methods using spectrophotometry, fluorescence, and other methods can measure your blood sugar, cholesterol and other markers of health and diseases. A few private companies offer continuous monitoring of your health data via your toilet. If you consent – and sometimes if you don’t – they’re able to share it with medical establishments, like your primary care physician, or your insurance. 

Toilet sampling and analysis is a routine part of public health surveillance for new viruses. State and federal health departments use data from wastewater monitoring to get ahead of potential pandemics. It also helps epidemiologists predict the emergence of new strains of common pathogens, like influenza. Despite constant debate about privacy and data ownership, for now, household and community wastewater surveillance data is in the hands of public agencies. 

Last year, the annual W2R report for North Carolina showed that Society Improvement Scores were up by 1.6 points from the previous year. Hospitalizations due to infectious agents in water are down 3%. In lower income areas, childhood growth rates have also improved. Fewer sick days were reported at places of employment and K-12 public schools. Measures of equity and general wellness continue to follow an upward trend.

Journey deeper into the future of wastewater:

• What’s on Tap? Maybe One Day Your Wastewater

“What if we reimagine what toilets are? People reimagined what toilets were a century ago, when they adopted the water closet. How is that not possible for us to do now?”

– Matthew Booker, What’s on Tap? Maybe One Day Your Wastewater

Energy

The United States of Green: By 2050, we will cooperate and share equitable, reliable green energy from coast to coast 

By the year 2050, the United States has reached net zero carbon emissions through widespread adoption of alternative energy sources like wind and solar, which are now cheaper than ever, and some geothermal. We’ve developed technologies to store years’ worth of energy and have built infrastructure across the United States to transfer it from coast to coast. Communities along power line paths in the middle of the country worked with local and federal governments to draft plans to accommodate power lines that do not disproportionately harm communities. The grid is smart, connected, redundant, reliable and balanced. Every home is furnished with energy-efficient, smart appliances that communicate with the grid to cycle or pull power depending on availability. Regional and independent energy companies across the US share data about power status to deliver reliable energy on demand. ‘By the year 2050, the United States has reached net zero carbon emissions through widespread adoption of alternative energy sources like wind and solar, which are now cheaper than ever, and some geothermal. We’ve developed technologies to store years worth of energy and have built infrastructure across the United States to transfer it from coast to coast. Communities along power line paths in the middle of the country worked with local and federal governments to draft plans to accommodate power lines that do not disproportionately harm communities. The grid is smart, connected, redundant, reliable and balanced. Every home is furnished with energy-efficient, smart appliances that communicate with the grid to cycle or pull power depending on availability. Regional and independent energy companies across the US share data about power status to deliver reliable energy on demand. 

Journey deeper into the future of energy:

• Can We Reach Green Goals by 2050? Yes, But It’s Complicated
• What if a smart grid transported energy from coast to coast?
• Bright Unite: What if green energy were a right?

“Our grandkids are probably going to live technologically in a very different world, from an energy perspective.”

– Jordan Kern, Can We Reach Green Goals by 2050? Yes, But It’s Complicated

Transportation

The End of the Personal Car as We Know It

By the year 2040, human-centered city design and reliable, affordable and accessible micromobility options and shared car subscriptions will make owning a private car obsolete. This will be true in urban and rural environments. As a result, society will be more equitable, more time and space will be available for improved wellbeing, streets will be safe enough for a child to traverse alone and repurposed parking lots will foster biodiversity and combat extreme weather conditions brought on by climate change. 

Journey deeper into the future of transportation:

• Will We Build Cities for Humans or Machines?
• What will life be like when no one needs a car?

“When we create convenient, affordable mobility options, then the car becomes a choice instead of a requirement.”

– Kai Monast, Will We Build Cities for Humans or Machines?

Traffic in the Sky 2040

Within 20 years, humans are managing a vast number of low-flying aircraft populating our skies. Drones are delivering consumer goods and medical devices or services during emergencies. They’re employed to help with the increasing number of natural disasters, like floods and forest fires. Besides drones, there’s flying cars. Three-to-eight-seater aircrafts take off and land from infrastructure built atop tall buildings and rivers. They shuttle people between neighborhoods, cities or regions. These electric vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) aircraft are prohibitively expensive. Private or for-hire vehicles serve only some, and representatives see a public option as financially impossible. Meanwhile, humans are exploring ways to manage all this air traffic. Systems vary by jurisdiction. Some places create “highways in the sky” to shepherd aircraft along lanes – like cars on highways. Other places employ a lot of air traffic controllers. And with the file-and-fly system, filed routes lock up airspace for a certain amount of time. No matter what type of traffic management system an airspace employs, all flights yield to emergency vehicles.

Journey deeper into the future of transportation:

• Will We Build Cities for Humans or Machines?
• A vote for air traffic management – what will you decide?

“We will have a vastly larger number of aircraft in the sky. They will be flying lower than what we’re typically used to in a greater quantity. And they will have to be managed by something.”

– Evan Arnold, Will We Build Cities for Humans or Machines?

AI and Education

“My Buddy” – A Lifelong Learning Pal

Within 10 years, each person will have a lifelong AI “pal” by their side. This pal learns along with you, as you grow from birth to death. Throughout life, you train your pal to become better and better at providing learning experiences that are more effective and engaging for you. The pal grows to understand you like no one ever has or will. It keys into your emotions. It knows what motivates you. It identifies when you’re struggling – and jumps in at the perfect time with the best way to help. It optimizes learning, embodying all the characteristics and behaviors gleaned from pedagogy and indigenous tutoring practices that have long made the best one-on-one tutors exceptional at helping students learn. With its assistance you can grasp any new concept almost instantly. Your AI pal is your personalized personal assistant, your soulmate – a sixth sense. Importantly, it also connects you more with others, like social media did in its early days. It makes you less lonely, and because you’re less lonely you learn better. In this future, learning is fun, easy and pain-free. 

Journey deeper into the future of education:

• Will Our Best Teachers Be Robots?

“What if you could take a collection of capabilities of human tutors and somehow replicate them in a pedagogical agent, in an AI-driven agent that has human-like characteristics?”

– James Lester, Will Our Best Teachers Be Robots?