Energy

Can We Reach Green Goals by 2050? Yes, But It’s Complicated

In the future, green energy could leave zero carbon footprint. We could store it for years and transfer it from coast to coast, delivering energy at low cost to anyone who needs it. It’s possible, say Jordan Kern and Harrison Fell. It’s even likely. But it won’t be easy.

“Our grandkids are probably going to live technologically in a very different world, from an energy perspective.”

– Jordan Kern, Can We Reach Green Goals by 2050? Yes, But It’s Complicated

Future Scenario: The United States of Green

By the year 2050, the United States has reached net zero carbon emissions through widespread adoption of alternative energy sources like wind and solar, which are now cheaper than ever, and some geothermal. We’ve developed technologies to store years’ worth of energy and have built infrastructure across the United States to transfer it from coast to coast. Communities along power line paths in the middle of the country worked with local and federal governments to draft plans to accommodate power lines that do not disproportionately harm communities. The grid is smart, connected, redundant, reliable and balanced. Every home is furnished with energy-efficient, smart appliances that communicate with the grid to cycle or pull power depending on availability. Regional and independent energy companies across the US share data about power status to deliver reliable energy on demand. ‘By the year 2050, the United States has reached net zero carbon emissions through widespread adoption of alternative energy sources like wind and solar, which are now cheaper than ever, and some geothermal. We’ve developed technologies to store years worth of energy and have built infrastructure across the United States to transfer it from coast to coast. Communities along power line paths in the middle of the country worked with local and federal governments to draft plans to accommodate power lines that do not disproportionately harm communities. The grid is smart, connected, redundant, reliable and balanced. Every home is furnished with energy-efficient, smart appliances that communicate with the grid to cycle or pull power depending on availability. Regional and independent energy companies across the US share data about power status to deliver reliable energy on demand. 

Future Scenario: What if a smart grid transported energy from coast to coast?

The year is 2045. Now, when you turn on the light in your bedroom on a calm night in May in North Carolina, it’s possible that the energy lighting up the page of your favorite book was harnessed back in January when the wind was blowing in south Texas. It’s also possible the energy came from your own roof or solar panels at a farm in Halifax this morning, or even two weeks ago when the sun beat down on Death Valley. That’s because we are now capable of generating green power from solar and wind on industrial and community farms for next to nothing. And we’re transporting it anywhere in the country whenever we want. 

In the US, the EPA’s 2024 rule to phase out unabated coal has been realized for a decade now. A handful of coal plants remain, but they all have carbon capture technology, so they’re producing net zero emissions. Even these coal plants are shutting down – economically, it’s just not worth it. Coal companies now own solar and wind, which have been cheaper for decades, especially now with the new grid. That affordability is partly how we avoided a financial crisis: Coal plants remaining after 2024 shut down slowly as alternatives came online and got cheaper over time. 

Now we pretty much rely on solar and wind, and a little geothermal. That was a problem before Congress passed the Bright Unite Act. It gave the feds power to build lines anywhere they wanted, with feedback and input from the communities the lines crossed. Most of the lines are built along interstates and highways. Before Bright Unite, if there wasn’t a coal or gas plant to pick up the slack when the sun wasn’t shining or the wind wasn’t blowing in your area, you simply couldn’t get power. Some places faced a decade of rolling black outs. We never had to go fully nuclear because by the time that it got inexpensive enough, we’d already rebuilt most of the grid and didn’t need new plants. 

The grid we’ve built is massive. Beneath and above the ground, powerlines zig-zag across the whole country, from California to Kansas to the Carolinas. Energy is harvested on huge solar and wind farms, sometimes at geothermal plants, or converted into green hydrogen to burn later. With all the different options, the grid is redundant. This means blackouts rarely, if ever, occur. If the power goes out, it’s usually back on and running in minutes, all carbon-free, no matter where you are in the States. 

Thanks to technology evolving so quickly, storage isn’t a problem. We store energy for up to a year or more in batteries, hydrogen cells and pump hydro. It pumps water upstream when we don’t need electricity and lets it fall downhill to produce electricity when we do.

Being able to store and transfer energy was kind of a mess before everything came online. Now every power plant and storage facility are seamlessly connected across space through the smart grid. It’s a whole communication system, where data shared across jurisdictions contributes to real-time energy status updates. At any time of day, anywhere in the country, it’s possible to know the electricity status in your house, neighborhood, state, region or the whole country. The goal is to keep it balanced. 

Right now, you can walk into any house and find energy-efficient smart appliances. By conversing with the grid, they also help balance it. The AI-powered appliances are adaptable, pulling energy when it’s available and cycling energy when it’s running low. Everyone is required to have smart appliances because our grid works best if everything attached to it is communicating with it. Sharing data ensures the most accurate balances, and accurate balances help us distribute electricity equally. That’s important because equal distribution prevents deaths of the most vulnerable people. In the 2020s and 2030s a heatwave or winter storm could kill a person during an electricity outage. This doesn’t happen anymore. 

To make sure every home can participate in Our Green Grid, the national balancing project,  took some work. At first smart appliances were expensive. But because they were built to last to conserve resources, and the technology they contain keeps getting cheaper, they’re becoming more affordable with time. Besides time, appliance companies provide rebates, and the federal government issues tax deductions when you buy a new smart appliance. Affordability isn’t an issue for those who rent. By law, rental housing requires smart appliances before occupants move in. 

For homeowners who still struggle to afford smart appliances upfront, there’s help. There’s the Federal Smart Home Program, which provides free or affordable appliances to people making below a certain income. Or, there may be a Community Green Fund, or CGF in your area. CGFs are popping up all over the country. Contributors pitch in to provide grants for others in their community who may have less. In return, contributors get the satisfaction of helping balance the grid – but also, tax breaks. In some places, CGFs put a percentage of investments into local gardens or businesses, and their contributors can elect to receive a percentage of the produce or profits.

Future Scenario: Bright Unite: What if green energy were a right?

You live out in the country, and you have to meet your team in the city for a presentation. You unplug your car – everyone who needs a car has an EV now, thanks to Bright Unite – and head out on the road. As you drive, you think about the power lines built along the shoulder of the highway. You remember when lanes were backed up for hours as construction workers planted the lines that would carry green energy across the whole country. Thank goodness that’s over, you think to yourself, and you turn on the radio. 

It’s the ten year anniversary of the Bright Unite Act’s final accomplishment, the host announces. A decade ago, on September 14, 2035 the president announced the completion of Our Green Grid, which connected every home in America to an adaptable, interconnected, reliable, totally green electricity grid. 

“This was once just a dream,” says the host. “Now everyone, everything, is connected to a power system that balances and transports energy from coast to coast. So today we celebrate the Bright Unite Act. Because of it, green energy is now a right. Everyone in the country benefits from our green grid. Smart appliances, green vehicles, home electricity: By law it must be made available to every person regardless of income, race, gender or age.”

The host speaks with correspondents stationed at celebrations and street festivals in California, Texas, Idaho, Illinois, Georgia and New York. But you don’t have to gather to celebrate. The grid will deliver little surprises throughout the day.  

At 3 PM, a solar farm in Death Valley will blink the lights on and off 14 times at houses and businesses in North Carolina. A wind farm in Long Island Sound will send a shock of rainbow lights along I-70’s power lines, signaling every car from New York to Kansas City to honk as it passes. From Texas, another wind farm shoots off a “Howdy” to home appliances in Wyoming. 

As you approach your exit, a sign is flashing: “Together we did it! 1050 miles!” All along the interstate signs flash the same message with different numbers. They represent the distance energy traveled to power the signs. At 3 pm, the ferris wheel downtown will light up in green. Your meeting will be done by then, and you’ll meet up with some friends and family for an outdoor concert. 

As you pull into the city, you stop at a light next to an old gas station. People have plugged their cars in and are waiting around in a little park as they charge. A mother pushes her daughter in a swing. Some friends sip coffee at a picnic table. A couple is bickering about dishes. They’re late for a museum event because of the dishes. One insists the smart washer isn’t working. The other says they’re just doing the dishes too often. No, says the other, it isn’t connected. The balance in the house is all whacky. That’s why the car died. And that’s why we’re here, sweating in a charging park. 

You roll up your window, and the light changes.